Published: 03 April 2014 г.
BISHKEK, KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (3 April 2014) – The GDP of the Kyrgyz Republic is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2014 and 5.5% in 2015, according to a new Asian Development Bank report. This estimate assumes that gold production will remain stable and that investment in energy and transport, mainly from the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, is forthcoming, according to the Asian Development Outlook 2014 (ADO 2014), ADB’s flagship annual economic publication.
According to the ADO 2014, in the Kyrgyz Republic GDP rebounded by 10.5% during 2013, driven mostly by a recovery in gold production. All sectors except agriculture showed robust growth as the private sector expanded. On the supply side, industrial output grew by 28.0%, reflecting a 45.4% growth in manufacturing driven by a near doubling of gold output from a low base in 2012.
The ADB report emphasizes that the rising poverty rate in the Kyrgyz Republic, which climbed from 31.7% in 2009 to 38.0% in 2012, has shown how easily poverty reduction achieved before 2008 can be reversed.
“Inclusive growth, benefitting all regions and people, is thus an urgent priority and necessary for political and social stability,” said Rie Hiraoka, ADB Country Director in the Kyrgyz Republic.
Services, which provide about half of GDP, grew strongly, at 5.1%. The strongest gains were in transportation (5.8%), trade (7.0%), and hotels and restaurants (11.1%), on the back of of higher consumer demand and improved cross-border trade. Agriculture outperformed the meager 1.2% rise in 2012, expanding by 2.9% as gains in grain and vegetable output outweighed a small decline in livestock production.
The report projects that inflation is expected to stay within 6%–7% during 2014–2015. Substantial price hikes are not expected for food, which accounts for around half of the consumer price index, given current forecasts for declining global food and fuel prices. The recent depreciation of the Kyrgyz som by about 10% and its fluctuations, following the decline in the Russian Ruble and Kazak tenge in March 2014, may cause higher inflation in 2014, as well as higher dollarization.
Young people in remote oblasts and the poor and vulnerable in particular need greater access to the high-quality training and education that can make them more employable. Improving access to affordable finance will help distribute economic opportunity more evenly across geographic areas. Addressing these constraints and supporting private sector development will likely accelerate growth.
ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2012, ADB assistance totaled $21.6 billion, including cofinancing of $8.3 billion.